Ana Sina

Sina, A., Billio, M., Dufour, A., Rocciolo, F., and Varotto, S., "The systemic risk of leveraged and covenant-lite loan syndications", International Review of Financial Analysis 97, 103738 (2025).
Abstract: By modelling the whole U.S. syndicated loan market as a financial network from 2000 to 2022, we find that highly connected institutions hold significant shares of leveraged and covenant-lite loans. Our analysis indicates that the size of leveraged and covenant-lite syndicated loan portfolios increases financial institutions' systemic risk, particularly during recession periods. Although banks commonly sell syndicated loans shortly after origination, our results suggest that they remain vulnerable to pipeline risk. Our study has significant implications for policymakers and regulators, as it can aid in identifying banks exposed to systemic risk associated with leveraged and covenant-lite loans and in ranking systemically important financial institutions accordingly.

Billio, M., Dufour, A., Sina, A., “How Climate Risk Shapes U.S. Systemic Stability through Syndicated Lending”
Abstract: This study investigates how climate dynamics affect systemic stability in the U.S. syndicated loan market. It combines eight established climate risk measures with a new proxy for banks’ green lending orientation and 16 region-specific indicators related to anomalies, droughts, and extreme events. Four key factors emerge as significant drivers of banks’ systemic risk: banks’ environmental stance, extreme events in the South, precipitation anomalies in the East, and changes in U.S. climate policy. While exposure to climate-sensitive regions poses challenges, the findings suggest that green lending contributes to stability. Ultimately, the research highlights the need for climate policies that mitigate uncertainty and promote sustainable lending, supporting financial resilience and facilitating a low-carbon transition, especially in Southern and Eastern regions.

Sina, A., “Broken Pledges: How Politics Undermines Net-Zero Ambitions in Banking”
Abstract: Using granular data on Net-Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA) members, this study shows that banks making tangible progress toward decarbonization financing targets exhibit significantly lower climate risk, as measured by the CRISK metric. However, between late 2024 and early 2025, several banks—primarily systemically important institutions based in North America and Japan—withdrew from the NZBA. Our analysis reveals that these withdrawals were driven exclusively by electoral outcomes in the United States, not financial or institutional factors. These findings highlight how vulnerable climate coalitions are to changes in the political landscape, casting doubt on the feasibility of achieving the 2050 net-zero decarbonization target. As political support for cutting emissions shifts, banks adjust accordingly, undermining confidence in the credibility of large banks’ commitments to the global climate agenda.

International Review of Financial Analysis (×1)